Updated: Fri Nov. 06 2009 16:32:44

ctvcalgary.ca

The fate of Premier Ed Stelmach's leadership will be decided in just over 24 hours.

Tory delegates from across Alberta are gathering in Red Deer and will vote Saturday on whether, or not, to endorse Stelmach's leadership of the PC Party.

The premier has certainly been tested since he became the leader.

He's been criticized for overhauling the royalty regime at the expense of the economy; he's been blamed for a by-election defeat by the Wildrose Alliance.

Stelmach is also being taken to task for the H1N1 vaccination rollout which is generally being described as a fiasco.

"I think this is something people will remember. I think this is something they will judge the government on and I think it reinforces the image that Stelmach cannot do the job. So it was very bad news for the premier," says David Taras, a political scientist at the University of Calgary.

When it comes to the polls, Stelmach has the lowest level of support for an Alberrta premier in decades. "This seems to be just a one-way toboggan ride down and there is no sense of Stelmach leveling off, the toboggan rides continue down very quickly," says Taras.

"All I know is this isn't the first time I've faced a situation like that. I remember July 2007 to March 2008 there were constant polls coming out saying 'oh, you're not doing this right and nobody likes you,' and at the end of the day we came out with 72 out of 83 seats. The most important poll is election day," says Ed Stelmach.

Experts say the vote could go either way but it is rare for a sitting premier to get pushed out of the role. Unseating a premier, who has such a large majority, and then having a leadership campaign to replace him may not be the best thing for the party right now.

The Tory constitution says Stelmach needs 51% support to stay on as leader.